Same fifty companies. Three windows. Three different worst cases.
Nothing about the index changed between these rows. Only the stretch of calendar somebody chose to measure.
| Nifty 50 . the same index every card benchmarks against | Worst fall | Rs 1000000 becomes |
|---|
| 23 Apr 2021 to 27 Apr 2026 . our backtest window | 16.92 pct | 830800 |
| Jan 2020 to Mar 2020 . the covid fall | about 38 pct | 620000 |
| Jan 2008 to Oct 2008 . the financial crisis | about 60 pct | 400000 |
| What each hole asks for on the way back | Climb to par |
|---|
| Back from 16.92 pct down | plus 20.4 pct |
| Back from 38 pct down | plus 61.3 pct |
| Back from 60 pct down | plus 150.0 pct |
Here is the part that should bother you, and it is our shelf too. The backtest window on these cards opens 23 April 2021. That is thirteen months after the covid bottom, and a long way after 2008. Not one strategy on the shelf has ever been asked what it does in a 60 percent fall. The question was never inside the sample.