---
title: "Track Record | Public Prediction Scorecard | RupeeCase"
description: "Every shipped Tanmay Edge podcast episode, every prediction, every grade. Hit rate 70% on 45 graded calls across 9 episodes. Updated 2026-08-27."
source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record"
---

Verifiable Track Record

# Every prediction. Every grade. In public.

    Each weekday morning at 8:30 IST, The Tanmay Edge ships a 5-prediction set on Indian markets.
    Levels, expiry pins, IV moves, chain flips. Same-day after market close, every prediction is graded
    against the actual print. The data is here. No cherry-picking, no edit history, no excuses.
    Hit rate 70% on 45 graded calls across 9 episodes.

      Episodes graded

      9

      last 10 trail

      Hits

      31.5

      70% of 45 calls

      Partials

      6

      13% directionally right

      Misses

      13

      29% wrong, on record

| EP | Date | Day | Title | Score | Hit | Part. | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EP112 | 2026-08-27 | Thu | The Close Was Made In The Auction | Sensex Expiry Day, Max Pain 77,600 Is Also The Gamma Flip | Writers Flip From 8-To-1 Puts To 5-To-1 Calls, 78,000 Wall Hits 39.6 Lakh | Nifty PCR Collapses 1.16 To 0.73, Floor Migrates To 24,000 | TBD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EP111 | 2026-08-26 | Wed | The Wall Became The Fuel | Nifty Closes AT The High, 134 Points ABOVE Max Pain, Through 2.16 Crore Calls | Crowd's Record 8.44 Lakh Naked Puts Expire Worthless | Fresh Board Writes Puts 1.75x Faster, Gamma Flips At 24,350 | Oil Collapses To | 3/5 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| EP110 | 2026-08-25 | Tue | The Wall Won | The Gap Was The High, 430 Lakh Calls Pressed, 24,300 Doubles To 216 Lakh | Pros Dump 1.8 Lakh Calls, Crowd Buys Them And Writes A Record 8.44 Lakh Naked Puts | Weekly + Monthly Expiry Together, Gap-Down Into 24,150 | The Trapdo | 3/5 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| EP109 | 2026-08-24 | Mon | Two Points Off The Magnet | Nifty Closes 24,252 vs Max Pain 24,250, Expiry Tomorrow | The Wall Rebuilt At 24,300 (135 Lakh Calls) vs 150 Lakh Puts At 24,200 | Oil Breaks To 92, Gold Record 4646, Korea -2.8% | +100 Gap Above The Wall: Buy On Dip | 4/5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| EP108 | 2026-08-21 | Fri | The Carpet Got Ripped Up | First Higher Close In 8 Days, 200 Lakh Calls Covered, PCR Crosses 1 | 69 Lakh Puts March On 24,200, Max Pain Climbs To 24,250 | Pros Flip Long, FII Sells The Rally | Oil 94, Gold Record, Nasdaq -1% | Gap Into 24,300 | 4.5/5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| EP107 | 2026-08-20 | Thu | Round 4, Priced For Boredom | The Auction That Moved 284 Points Costs Less This Week, 24 Lakh Calls Press 77,000, And The Crowd Sets A Fifth Record | 4.5/5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| EP106 | 2026-08-19 | Wed | The Morning Korea Broke | A Fourth Record Naked Put Book Meets The Pros' First Bearish Lean, Oil Prints 92, And The Battlefield Is 24,000 To 24,300 | 4/5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| EP105 | 2026-08-18 | Tue | The Oil Trigger Fired At 91 | A Third Record Naked Put Book Walks Into Expiry, 135 Lakh Puts Defend 24,300, And Vol Wakes 25 Percent At The Floor | 2.5/5 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| EP104 | 2026-08-17 | Mon | The Crowd Rebuilt The Record | 6.08 Lakh Naked Puts At The Cheapest Vol Of The Month, Max Pain Holds 24,400 A Fourth Day, The Machine Rotates Fresh | 2/5 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| EP103 | 2026-08-14 | Fri | The Fireworks Came One Minute Too Late | A Frozen Auction Moves 284 Points In The Uncross, Both Indices Pin On Max Pain, And Vol Hits The Cycle Floor | 4/5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |

## Methodology

    Each episode locks 5 specific predictions before market open. The set is committed in /data/podcast-prediction-trail.json (sourced from project_epNN_eod.md and project_epNN_graded.md memory files) and is read-only after the open bell.

      * **Hit:** the call printed exactly as stated. Level held, pin landed, IV moved as predicted.

      * **Partial:** directionally right but missed magnitude or timing.

      * **Miss:** the prediction failed.

      * **Mech (mechanic-fired):** the option setup paid out even though the spot path was different. Counted separately.

    Grading happens at EOD against the official NSE close + BhavCopy data. The trail keeps the last 10 episodes; older history is archived in the corresponding daily and graded memory files.

    Updated 2026-08-27 from /data/podcast-prediction-trail.json

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