Season 2, Episode 16 | 2026-04-09
EP16 | The Tanmay Edge
FII covered 32,000 contracts | and the squeeze isn't over. Sensex weekly expiry analysis.
Market Overview
DESCRIPTION: Nifty rallied 874 points yesterday on the Iran ceasefire. FII covered 32,035 futures contracts | biggest single-day unwind in Season 2. Pro flipped to short puts. Client booked profits on 1 lakh short-put contracts as the gap-up played into their long-delta position. But FII is still short 2,27,400. Today is Sensex weekly expiry with an 800-point straddle | implied range 76,600 to 78,600. GIFT Nifty 24,005 this morning, down 94 from yesterday’s close. Asia is taking profits. Brent bounced 2% to $96.78. DXY back above 99. The vol crush from yesterday’s gap continues | IV dropped 41…
F&O Positioning
SEG 2 | PRO / FII / CLIENT This is the story today. And I need you to pay attention because what happened yesterday in the F&O data is the kind of thing that only shows up a few times a year. Pro traders | they flipped. 2 days ago Pro was sitting on 37,656 long puts | hedging, cautious. Yesterday they dumped those and went to -28,233 short puts. That’s a full flip from defensive to aggressive bullish. When I say ‘short puts’ | Pro is now selling puts, meaning they believe the market won’t fall. They’re collecting premium and betting on sideways-to-up. Pro flips first. Always watch Pro. FII | c…
Options & GEX Analysis
SEG 3 | OPTIONS + LEVELS Sensex straddle is at 800. I calculate the implied range as 1.25 times the straddle price | that gives us 1,000 points. With Sensex at 77,600, the market is pricing a range of 76,600 to 78,600. On Nifty terms, that’s roughly 23,700 to 24,300. Now here’s the key | IV has already been crushed 41% from yesterday’s gap. The screener is showing a Sell IV / Sell Options signal. IV at 20.97% with the proprietary volatility model at 20.06. When IV is above the model but collapsing fast, that’s a premium-selling environment. Don’t buy options on a Day 2 vol crush | sell them. S…
Commodities & FX
Dollar Index | 99.08, back above 99. Yesterday it broke below for the first time in weeks. Today it’s reclaiming. That’s a mild headwind for rupee and EM flows. Gold international | $4,723, basically flat. MCX Gold at 1,51,619 | down 157. Silver MCX at 2,39,894, up 3.69% | interesting outperformance there.
Sector Watch
Now here’s what I’m watching closely | crude bounced. Brent at $96.78, up 2.14% from yesterday’s crash close of $94.68. MCX Crude at 8,860 | basically flat. Is this a dead cat bounce, or is the ceasefire trade fading? Keep this in mind for the sector discussion. SEG 4 | SCREENER + SECTORS Screener signal | Sensex Fast is on BUY. Signal triggered at 72,965. Projected price 77,863. Current trade MTM is +4,636, that’s +6.35%. Rolling 3-trade MTM at +5.69%, rolling 5-trade at +8.21%. The system is locked in on the long side and has been right through this entire rally sequence. Sector picture | ye…
Trading Plan & Levels
Sensex weekly expiry today. And the setup is interesting. SEG 5 | TANMAY’S READ
Education
Quick education point | why Day 2 after a gap is often better for selling premium than Day 1.
RupeeCase Update
HASHTAGS: #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #SensexExpiry #FII #ProVsFII #IVCrush #RupeeCase LINKS: rupeecase.com | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube COLD OPEN 32,000 contracts. That’s how many FII covered yesterday. In 1 session. Biggest single-day unwind we’ve seen all season. And they’re still short 2,27,400 contracts. RupeeCase Nifty portfolio | yesterday was interesting. The portfolio is up 91.58% gross, 9.77% CAGR. But yesterday it lagged the benchmark because Bank Nifty drove the rally at +5.67% and our portfolio is equally-weighted across 10 stocks, not bank-heavy. SHRIRAMFIN was t…
Highlights
- Fii covered 32,000 contracts | and the squeeze isn’t over description:
- Fii covered 32,035 futures contracts | biggest single-day unwind in seas
- Fii covered yesterday
- Gift nifty 24,005
- Crude at 8,860 | basically flat
- Straddle is pricing 1,000 points
Transcript Excerpt
32 ,000 contracts. That's how many FIS covered yesterday in one session. Biggest single day unwind we have seen all this season. And they are still short 2 ,27 ,400 contracts. Today's Sensex expiry, the straddle is pricing around 1 ,000 points movement. And GIFNIFTY is barely down 94 points from yesterday's monster close. So the question is, was yesterday's the squeeze or was it the beginning of the squeeze? So this is Tanmay's Edge, India's pre -market edge, every trading day. I'm Tanmay Kurtaguti. Season 2, episode 16, Sensex weekly expiry. Let's go. go so gift nifty this morning 24 0005 down almost 1995 points from yesterday's close that's nothing pull back after an 874 point rally that we saw yesterday the market is digesting not reversing us markets uh snp was up by 2 .51 nasdaq was up by 2 .8 percent dow was flat europe was massive dax was up by five percent cap was up by 4 .3 percent footsie also two and a half percent the ceasefire rally went global Asia this morning, some profit booking is seen. Nikkei is down by 0 .5%. Hang Seng is down by 0 .5%. Kospi is down by 1%. After yesterday's 5 -8 % surges that we saw across the globe, this is completely normal. You don't go vertical 2 days in a row. Now here's what I'm watching closely today. Crude bounced Brent at 96 .78, up 2 % from yesterday's crash close of 94 .68. M6 crude is trading at 88 .60, basically flat. is this a dead cat bounce or is this the serious fire trading trade fading so keep this in mind for the sector discussion going on so dollar index is just below that 100 100 mark and it's trading at 99 .08 back above that 99 level yesterday it had broken below the 99 level for the first time in weeks today it's reclaiming it that's a mild headwind for rupee and emerging market flows Gold internationally is trading at 4723, basically flat. MCX gold at 1 ,51 ,619, down 157 points. Silver on MCX is trading at 2 ,39 ,894, up almost 4 points, 3 .69%. Interesting outperformance there. Now, let's move t…
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