Season 2, Episode 18 | 2026-04-13
EP18 | The Tanmay Edge
Crude $102 shock, GIFT down 335 to 23,756. FII at -2,86,227 shorts (S2 peak) but cash buyers +672 Cr | hedged accumulation, not panic. Expiry Monday.
Market Overview
Brent crude just spiked 7.5% overnight to $102. GIFT Nifty is gapping down 335 points to 23,756. Asia is red across the board. FII are sitting on 2,86,227 short contracts | the highest this entire season. Happy expiry Monday. India's pre-market edge | actionable data, zero fluff. Season 2, Episode 18. Monday, 13th April. Nifty weekly expiry. Brent crude blew through $100 overnight. Was $94.45 on Friday. Now $102.30 | up 7.45% in a single session. WTI $104.90, up 8.6%. Hormuz situation worsened over the weekend. Dow futures 47,570, down 0.72%. Nikkei down 0.9%. Hang Seng down 1%. KOSPI down 1.2…
F&O Positioning
Pro traders at +91 contracts. Essentially flat. Neutral. Holding long puts and long calls | hedged both ways. Not making a directional bet. FII added 58,509 short contracts in a single day on Friday. Net position -2,86,227 | highest short position of the entire season. Not even during March lows were they this short. But here's the paradox | same FII were net cash buyers at +672 crore on Friday. First time in weeks. Long puts 3,33,261 contracts. Short calls 1,78,598. This isn't panic selling. Full institutional hedge book. Short the index as overlay, buy equities underneath. Collar strategy. W…
Options & GEX Analysis
Gamma flip zone at 24,050 | exactly where Nifty closed Friday. GIFT at 23,756 = opening 300 points below the flip. Negative gamma territory. Market makers short gamma | they amplify moves. Aggressive, volatile open expected. 24,000 strike has 53 lakh total OI. Put OI alone 67 lakh contracts | gravitational magnet. Above 24,050, GEX turns positive. 24,200 call wall with GEX 2,776. 24,300 at 2,514 | resistance zones, not breaking through today. Friday straddle at 24,000: 283. 1-standard-deviation range: 23,646 to 24,354. GIFT at 23,756 is within range | barely. VIX spike 10-15% on open expected,…
Screener & IV
Screener flipped to BUY on Friday at 23,977. Projected price 24,040. Gapping well below both levels this morning. Doesn't invalidate the buy signal | market handing you a pullback into the buy zone. Rolling 3-trade accuracy almost 5%. Screener buying into fear. IV was 17.08 Friday | sell IV territory. With this crude shock gap, IV going to spike. Day-1 of a fresh volatility event. Don't sell premium at the open. Let VIX spike. Let first 30-45 minutes play out. If VIX starts cooling, then sell. Sectors: Energy and metals leading. Crude $100+ gives energy fresh tailwind but double-edged for Indi…
Education: Rebalance Mechanics
Today is RupeeCase rebalance day. How systematic rebalancing works: every 2 weeks, RupeeCase Nifty strategy re-scores all 50 stocks on momentum. Top 10 get equal weight. No opinions. No 'I feel bullish on this name.' Pure data. If momentum fades, stock exits. New name accelerates, it enters. The discipline is doing this on a day like today | market gapping down 300 points and gut says 'wait.' Systematic strategy doesn't wait. It executes. Exactly why it has generated 6.9% alpha over the benchmark.
Trading Plan & Levels
Expiry day gap-down into negative gamma with crude shock catalyst. VIX spikes first 30-60 minutes. Could test 23,700 or even 23,650 if panic. But expiry days with massive OI at ATM strike are mean-reverting. 24,000 strike with 53 lakh contracts acting as magnet. Market finds low in first 1-2 hours, grinds back toward 23,900-24,000 by close. Day ends negative | probably -0.5% to -1% from Friday. This is a buy-on-dips week. Today's dip is the entry. Don't chase the panic. Wait for the mean reversion. 6 out of the last 7 reads have been right. Let's keep the streak going. Track the rebalance live…
Highlights
- Crude $102 shock | GIFT down 335 to 23,756
- FII -2,86,227 shorts (S2 peak) but +672 Cr cash buyers = hedged accumulation
- Client max bullish | all underwater this morning
- Gamma flip at 24,050, opening 300 pts below in negative gamma
- Straddle 283 at 24K, 1SD range 23,646-24,354
- Screener BUY signal at 23,977 | gap-down is pullback into buy zone
- RupeeCase rebalance day: metal+IT entering, pharma exiting
Transcript Excerpt
Hey traders, Brent crude just spiked 7.5% overnight to $102. Gift Nifty is gapping down by 340 points to 23,756. Asia is red across the board and FIs are sitting on 2,86,000 short contracts. The highest we have seen in recent times. Happy expiry Monday. This is India's pre-market edge. Actionable data, zero bluff. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2 Episode 18. It's Monday the 13th of April, Nifty expiry. Let's go. Brent crude just blew through 100. It was trading around 94 on Friday. Right now it's trading at 102, up almost 7.5% in a single session. WTI is up by 9% and is trading around 105. The Hormuz situation clearly worsened over the weekend. This is the main gap down catalyst for today morning. Dow futures are down by 0.72% in the pre-market opening from Friday's close. Nikkei is down by 0.9%. Hang Seng is down by 1%. KOSPI is down by 1.2%. Asia is uniformly red. Gold is at 4722, actually down by 0.6%. Some profit taking has happened over there as well. Dollar index is trading at 99.02. Here's something interesting. It was at 100.20 on Friday. Dollar actually weakened despite the risk off. That tells you this isn't a broad panic. It's just a crude specific repricing that we are seeing. GIFT Nifty is at 23,756. Down 335 points from Friday's close. That's a 1.4% gap down. Opened at 23,900 today morning and has already slipped to an intraday low of 23,735. This is crude shock repricing. Now here's where it gets interesting. Let me walk you through Friday's positioning because that's what's going to drive today's action at open. Pro traders were flat. They had just 91 contracts. Basically neutral on the futures side. They were holding long puts and long calls. Both are hedged. Pro isn't making a directional bet. FIs on Friday added 58,000 short contracts in futures in a single session. That took their net position to 2,86,000 short. The highest short position we have seen in recent times. Not even during the March lows were they this short. But here's the para…
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