Season 2, Episode 21 | 2026-04-17
EP21 | The Tanmay Edge
Pro dumped 93% of call position, doubled down on short futures. FII covering collapsed 87,636 to 1,729. Go light into the weekend.
Market Overview
Pro didn't trim. Pro didn't hedge. Pro dumped 93% of the call position in a single session | and doubled down on short futures and long puts at the same time. The FII covering that dominated Tuesday collapsed from 87,636 contracts to 1,729 the next day. India's pre-market edge | actionable data, zero fluff. Season 2, Episode 21. Friday, 17 April. Pre-weekend, pre-Tuesday 21-Apr expiry. GIFT Nifty 24,179 (+8). Brent $98.13, pulled back from $98.62 high overnight | but still a long way from Wednesday's $94.60 low. Nifty closed 24,196.75 (-0.14%) yesterday, 3 points below the 24,200 pin. VIX 18.0…
F&O Positioning | Conviction, Not Hedge
Pro Futures | -6,344 (from -2,559). Added shorts. No ambiguity. Pro Calls | +5,838 (from +85,181). That is a 93% dump in a single session. Institutional call book vaporised. Pro Puts | +1,34,663 (from +83,838). Added 50,825 more long puts into the rally. Three legs, same direction. Not a hedge. Conviction. FII Futures | -1,98,989. Covering pace collapsed from 87,636 Tuesday to just 1,729 yesterday. The short-cover rally we traded Wednesday is done. Client Futures | +1,42,086. Max bullish. They bought what Pro sold. They added 2,08,325 calls and shorted 5,54,584 puts. Classic retail extreme.
Options & Levels | 24,200 Is the Line
24,200 is the line. Again. But this time it is support, not resistance. Put support stacked at 24,200, 24,000 (29L), 23,800 (28L). Call walls at 24,500 (41L), 24,600 (28L). 98 lakh new call OI built in the last three sessions across 24,400-24,600 strikes. That is the fortress. Nifty isn't going through that easily without another catalyst. ATM straddle holding in the 400s. 1SD ±510 pts through Tuesday expiry. TK Screener | IT still Strong Buy. FMCG Strong Sell. Finance pullback but trend intact. India VIX still Strong Sell.
Breadth vs Index
Yesterday | 35 of 50 Nifty stocks closed green. But the index closed red. That is institutional selling into retail buying. Distribution in disguise. When breadth is positive but index is down, supply is hitting the heaviest weights. Nothing bullish about a green-breadth red-index day at this stage of the cycle. The market rewards patience and punishes conviction without evidence. Don't chase.
Trading Plan | Go Light Into the Weekend
Morning bias | some selloff expected today. 24,200 is the line. Below that, acceleration. Go light into the weekend. Crude is the weekend catalyst. If Brent crosses $100 over the weekend, Tuesday opens gap-down. If crude stays below $100, expiry day grinds around 24,200. Next week catalysts | Tuesday 21-Apr Nifty weekly expiry, Wipro Q4, HCL Tech Q4. HDFC Bank Q4 after close today. RupeeCase Nifty runs next rebalance 4 May. This week's cadence finishes here.
RupeeCase Update
→ RupeeCase Nifty on rupeecase.com → Stream live on rupeecase.com/podcast → Follow on Apple Podcasts + Spotify → Twitter: @TanmayKurtkoti #TheTanmayEdge #FIIData #ProConviction #OptionsTrading #QCAlpha #RupeeCase
Highlights
- Pro dumped 93% of call position in a single session (+85,181 → +5,838)
- Pro added 50,825 more long puts into the rally
- Pro flipped deeper short on futures | -2,559 → -6,344
- FII covering collapsed 87,636 → 1,729 in one day
- Client max-long | +1,42,086 futures, +2,08,325 calls, -5,54,584 puts
- 24,200 is the line | now support, not resistance
- 98L new call OI across 24,400-24,600 = the fortress
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning guys. Pros went from 85 ,000 long calls to just 5 ,800 in one session. That's 93 % liquidation. They didn't trim, they didn't hedge, they just dumped it. Then they loaded 51 ,000 new puts. Then they doubled their short futures from 2 ,500 to 6 ,300. And FIS? FIS covered 87 ,000 contracts on Tuesday. Yesterday they did 1 ,700 contracts and that's done. and crude is sitting at 98 this morning 1 .87 from the number that started the march sell -off today i am going to show you exactly what pro is positioning for why fis is covering is finished and what the call wall at 24 300 to 24 500 means for the nifty expiry next week Let's get into it. So India's pre -market edge cutting through the noise so you can trade with clarity. I am Tanmay Kurthakoti, Season 2, Episode 21. Let's go. So Gift Nifty guys is trading at 24 ,179 this morning. Mildly green, just 8 points up. Looks calm on the surface. But look underneath. Nikkei is down 486 points. That's 0 .82%. Hang Seng is down 208 points. Shanghai is also down. Asia is not buying yesterday's rally. mix snp was up by 0 .26 percent nasdaq was up by 0 .36 percent that was flat europe europe again almost flat footsie dax all closed between 0 .29 to 0 .36 percent now the big one crude brent spiked to 98 .62 last night that's just 140 bps from that 100 mark this morning it put it has pulled back slightly towards that 98 .10 zone wti is trading at 93 .33 and on mcx crude is trading at 88 .56 why does this matter the march sell -off remember what triggered it crude above hundred dollars mark Brent crossed 102 and FIS pulled a plug on India. We got a 420 point day on Nifty. They dumped 3 .5 lakh crore in a month. Now we are just 180 bips away from that $100 mark. And this time, FIS just finished the biggest short covering we have seen in recent times. If crude crosses $100, that covering reverses. Gold is sitting at 4791 flat. Dollar index is at 98 .20 and rupee is at 93 .20 slightly stronger. The headline is gift n…
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