Season 2, Episode 22 | 2026-04-20
EP22 | The Tanmay Edge
Pro flipped bearish Thu, bullish Fri | 122,488 calls added, 65,922 puts dumped. Fastest reversal in S2. IV 14.58%, straddle 315. Nifty weekly expiry Tue.
Market Overview
Pro reversed in 24 hours. Thursday Pro flipped short with conviction | calls dumped, puts loaded, futures added short. Friday Pro flipped back bullish | 1,22,488 calls added, 65,922 puts dumped, shorts covered. The fastest reversal of Season 2. India's pre-market edge | actionable data, zero fluff. Season 2, Episode 22. Monday, 20 April. Pre-Nifty weekly expiry (Tuesday 21 Apr). GIFT Nifty 24,467 (+47, +0.19%). Nifty closed Friday at 24,353.55 (+156.80, +0.65%) | V-shape recovery from 24,096 low through 24,371 high (276-pt intraday range). VIX 17.17 (-5.09%). 21-Apr ATM IV 14.58% | crushed. Br…
F&O Positioning | 24-Hour Pro Flip
Pro Futures | -2,128 (from -6,344 Thursday). Covered 4,216 shorts back. Pro Calls | +1,28,326 (from +5,838 Thursday). Added 1,22,488 calls in one session | effectively rebuilt the whole book they dumped Thursday. Pro Puts | +68,741 (from +1,34,663 Thursday). Dumped 65,922 puts. All three legs reversed together in a single day. That is the fastest pivot of Season 2. FII Futures | -1,90,953. Covered 9,765 over two days | pace is collapsing. From 87,636/day Tuesday to ~5,000/day now. The easy money from the squeeze is done. FII Cash | +683 Crore Friday. Third straight day positive. Distribution-t…
Options Chain | 21-Apr Expiry
Max pain shifted from 24,200 to 24,300-24,400. That is the Tuesday pin zone. Call walls | 25,000 (114L), 24,800 (83L), 24,600 (49L). Put support | 24,000 (76L, +34L built Friday), 23,500 (65L), 24,200 (63L). ATM 24,350 straddle 315.20. 1SD ±394 pts through Tuesday | range 23,956 to 24,744. PCR 1.018 | neutral, down from 1.28 Wednesday. GEX | positive above 24,200, negative below 24,100. Gamma flip is the line.
Education | Hedge When Vol Is Cheap
IV at 14.58%, VIX at 17. This is a cheap-vol window. The 24,000 put is trading around 50. When VIX is 25 and fear is everywhere, that same 24,000 put trades 150 to 200. Three to four times the cost for identical protection. You don't hedge when you're scared. You hedge when the market is calm and the option is mispriced on the cheap side. Today is one of those windows. That is the education point. View | buy the dip with a hedge. Not buy the dip naked, not sit in cash, not short. Buy with protection while protection is on sale.
RupeeCase Nifty | 20 Apr Rebalance
Today is a rebalance day. Entered | AXISBANK, ONGC (re-entry). Exited | DRREDDY, JSWSTEEL. Retained | TECHM, SHRIRAMFIN, TATASTEEL, HINDALCO, COALINDIA, SBIN, NTPC, POWERGRID. Holdings post-rebalance | SHRIRAMFIN, TATASTEEL, HINDALCO, ONGC, COALINDIA, SBIN, NTPC, POWERGRID, AXISBANK, TECHM. Daily return +1.00%. Net return 55.92%. Benchmark 64.44%. Next rebalance 4 May. The strategy didn't wait for conviction. It rescored on momentum, executed the swap, moved on.
Trading Plan | Buy Dip With Hedge
Morning bias | buy the dip with a hedge. Cheap vol window. Levels | 24,200 support, 24,500 resistance, 24,700 if 24,500 breaks. 1SD range 23,956 to 24,744 through Tuesday expiry. Max pain 24,300-24,400 | pin zone for Tuesday. Remember | this is a slow grind on FII covering, not a squeeze. Covering pace from 87K/day to 5K/day means the easy pop is done. DII-to-FII handoff in cash signals the easy money from the lows is done. Grind higher on fundamentals from here, not flow pyrotechnics. EP21 grade | 7/10. Selloff came, 24,200 broke briefly but no acceleration, V-shape instead. Crude conditional…
RupeeCase Update
→ RupeeCase Nifty on rupeecase.com | 20 Apr rebalance live → Stream on rupeecase.com/podcast → Follow on Apple Podcasts + Spotify → Twitter: @TanmayKurtkoti #TheTanmayEdge #ProReversal #HedgeWhileCheap #NiftyExpiry #QCAlpha #RupeeCase
Highlights
- Pro reversed 24 hours | 1,22,488 calls added, 65,922 puts dumped, 4,216 shorts covered
- Fastest Pro pivot of Season 2
- FII cover pace collapsed | 87,636/day → ~5,000/day
- FII cash +683 Cr Fri | 3rd straight day positive
- DII sold 8,149 Cr in 2 sessions | handoff in progress
- IV 14.58%, VIX 17.17 | cheap-vol hedge window
- Max pain shifted 24,200 → 24,300-24,400 for 21-Apr
- ATM 24,350 straddle 315 | 1SD ±394 pts into expiry
- RupeeCase Nifty rebalance | +AXISBANK +ONGC, -DRREDDY -JSWSTEEL
Transcript Excerpt
a very good morning guys pros flipped on Thursday and we told you Friday they flipped back added 1 ,22 ,000 long calls dumped 66 ,000 puts the fastest reversal we have seen in recent times was the bear flip real or was it a one day trade meanwhile dh just sold 8 ,000 crores in two sessions while fis quickly bought cash the handoff is happening and crude just went from 102 to 95 to 90 and back to 98 again today I am going to break down what actually changed over the weekend and why the hedge window is open right now and what option chain is telling you about tomorrow's expiry this is the message episode 22 let's go so gift if the this morning guys is trading up by 47 points from Friday's close modest gap up what we are seeing not the 24 5 50 or 600 we saw friday evening gift already pulled back to from 24 600 to 24 500 to 24 400 overnight and now is sitting around 24 450. The gap up is narrowing. Friday's close, Nifty was up by 150 points, opened at 24 ,160, crashed to 24 ,080 in the first 90 minutes, then rallied 276 points to close near the day high at 24 ,371. Classic V -shape recovery. The first rally second was played out again on Friday. US on Friday was up nicely, Europe was strong on Friday, Asia this morning is, Nikkei is up by 0 .94, recovered from Friday is negative, Hang Seng is up by 1 .22, Taiwan is up by 1 .22, Shanghai is up by 0 .58, Asia recovered but Gift Nifty 24 -4 -50 is the smallest gap up in the region. Commodities, Crude, this is the story of the week, Monday 13th April, Brent was at 102 on Hormuz Square. Wednesday it was 95. Friday it crashed to 90. And today it is back to 95, up 5 % from Friday. WTI same pattern. 83 Friday to 88 to today up by 6%. So crude went from 102 to 95 to 90 to 98 in 7 days. That is not a trend. That is noise. Do not build your thesis on crude right now. Just know the direction is lower from 102. peak and higher from 90 levels that is held m6 crude is trading around 76 16 down 0 .6 percent on friday today morning you…
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