Season 2, Episode 25 | 2026-04-23
EP25 | The Tanmay Edge
GIFT down 171 before the bell. Sensex expiry + Infy Q4 post close. Client max wrong side | longed 733514 calls + shorted 519012 puts. AND gate live 3rd session. Buy the dip after the forced covers finish | not the open.
Cold Open | The Pivot From Yesterday
Good morning. Thursday 23 April. Sensex expires today. Infosys reports after close. GIFT Nifty already down 171 points before we open. What happens when Client is trapped on both sides of the book and the morning gaps exactly into their pain? Yesterday bias was defensive. Sell rallies. Hold puts. Trail hedged longs. Today I am taking the other side of that. The overnight gap just did some of the work for us. First hour and second half are two completely different trades.
Yesterday's Snapshot | The Break
Nifty closed 24367.65 (-0.85%). Intraday low 24353. 24400 was supposed to hold. It didn't. Sensex 78516. Broke 79300 weekly flip by 784 points. 78500 magnet owned the close. Pro flipped clean bear. Futures +222 flat. Calls sold 208593. Puts bought 118931. FII pressed deeper short. Futures -183314. Added 9366 shorts. Put book +345946 | biggest put flow of the day. Client max wrong side. Longed 733514 calls into the fade. Shorted 519012 puts into the breakdown. Cash | first dual sell day in April. FII -2078 Cr. DII -1048 Cr. MTD FII -85559 Cr. DII +81334 Cr. DII was the buyer of last resort for …
Overnight Tape | AND Gate Live 3rd Session
US strong. S&P +1.05%. Nasdaq +1.64%. Real follow through from Tuesday. Europe mixed. DAX -0.31. FTSE -0.21. CAC -0.97. Asia split. Nikkei -0.77. Hang Seng -0.49. Taiwan +1.92. KOSPI +1.18. Not a trend. GIFT Nifty 24193 (-171). 0.70% gap down priced in. India diverging south of US cue. Brent 102.31. Spike near 5 AM IST ran higher then reverted fast. Noise, not signal. USD INR above 93.40 gate. Both legs of wrong side tell are live into expiry. Brent above 96. Rupee above 93.40. First time in April both fired at close and still firing into the open. After a 171 point gap down, you don't sell th…
Squeeze Then Relief | The Trapped Book Mechanic
Client ended yesterday long calls into a broken floor and short puts into a breakdown. Forced unwind book. Both legs are losers the second we gap down. First hour opens gap down. Client short puts scream higher. Loss is margin not paper. Somebody has to cover. They cover into a chain where Pro already owns puts, FII is max short on both futures and puts, and nobody of size is sitting there offering. Puts get slaughtered in the first hour. Not because they were the wrong trade. Because they were the forced trade into no offer. Once covering finishes (11:30 to 12), bid under puts disappears. Nob…
Sensex 1DTE + Nifty 28 Apr Levels
Sensex spot 78516. ATM straddle 679. 1SD (x1.25) = 849 pts. Expected range 77667 to 79366. Walls | 79000 call ceiling. OI 1.39M. Gamma +3466. Heaviest wall on the board. 78500 magnet. OI 984k. Negative gamma pin zone. 78000 put floor. OI 1.14M. PCR 7.4. Gamma -2423. Real floor. Path | First half tests 78000. 78000 holds. Second half drifts 78200 to 78500. Settle 78200 to 78700. Trade on chain | Hold 78500 on open, sell the 79000 78000 strangle. Lose 78500 first hour, stand down, buy straddle unwind after 78000 confirms. Reclaim 79000, abandon the pin play. Nifty 28 Apr | ATM straddle 360. 1SD …
Education | Morning Squeeze, Midday Silence, Second Half Reversion
When Client is max trapped on both sides, the expiry mechanic is not pin. It's squeeze then relief. Short puts squeeze first | unlimited loss in a gap. Long calls fade second | wrong hedge from day one. The trap most retail falls into is thinking the first hour is the day trade. On a trapped book day, the first hour is forced covering. Not the direction. The direction shows up after the panic ends. Morning squeeze. Midday silence. Second half mean reversion into settle. The fade of the fade is where the edge lives when the participant chain shows Pro + FII on one side and Client alone on the o…
Today's Plan + Predictions
Bias | Buy dips with hedge. Pivot from yesterday. Overnight gap does the work of the sell rally for you. 78000 Sensex is the line. Holds on first test | second half bullish into magnet. Cleaves through | stand down. Nifty 24300 is the line on the weekly cycle. Above 24300 at close means mean reversion won. Below 24200 means gap got extended and we are in a real trend. Infy post close is a Friday story, not a today story. Don't anchor your intraday trade to it. Five point prediction set on record for tomorrow's grade. 78000 tests but holds. Second half relief prints. Nifty settles above 24300. …
Highlights
- Sensex weekly expiry + Infy Q4 post close | stacked event day
- GIFT Nifty 24193 (-171) | 0.70% gap down before the bell
- AND gate live 3rd session | Brent 102.31 above 96 + USD INR above 93.40
- FII max short | futures -183314, added 9366 shorts, +345946 puts
- Client max wrong side | longed 733514 calls, shorted 519012 puts
- First dual sell day in April | FII -2078 Cr + DII -1048 Cr
- Sensex ATM straddle 679 | 1SD 849 | expected range 77667 to 79366
- Walls | 79000 ceiling (1.39M OI), 78500 magnet, 78000 floor (PCR 7.4)
- Nifty 28 Apr IV 16.88 | hedges cheap for longer holds
- Bias flipped overnight | defensive yesterday to buy dips with hedge today
Transcript Excerpt
Good morning traders. It's Thursday, 23rd April. Sensex expires today. Infosys reports after close. GIFT Nifty is already down more than 200 points before we have even opened. The question I want you to sit with for the next seven to eight minutes is this. What happens when Client is trapped on both sides of the book and the morning gaps exactly into their pain. Yesterday I said the default bias was defensive. Sell on rallies. Hold puts. Buy on dips with hedges. Okay. Today I am taking the other side of that. The overnight gap just did some of the work for us and the setup I see on the chain says the first hour and the second half are completely different trades. So let's look at what happened yesterday. Nifty closed at 24367 down 0.85. Intraday low was 24353. 24400 was supposed to hold. It didn't. Sensex closed at 78516, broke the 79300 weekly flip by 784 points. The 78500 magnet owned the close. Pro flipped clean bear in one session. Futures plus 222, essentially flat. Calls 2 lakh sold. Puts bought 1 lakh 18000. FII pressed deeper short. Futures are now minus 1 lakh 83000. Added around 9000 shorts on that day. Did not cover. Put book added around 345946. That was the biggest put flow of the day by any participant. Client did what Client always does on a day like this. Long around 733000 calls into the fade. Shorted around 519000 puts into the breakdown. Maximum wrong side exposure on both legs. On the cash tape, the first dual sell day in April. FII sold around 2000 crore. That's regular. DII sold another 1050 crore. Month to date FII have sold almost 85000 crore. DII cumulative stands at almost 81000 crore. DII have been the buyer of last resort for four weeks. Yesterday they sold as well. US closed strong. S and P was up 1.05 pct. Nasdaq plus 1.64 pct. Real follow through from Tuesday's risk on. Europe was mixed. DAX minus 0.31. FTSE minus 0.21. CAC was also minus 1 pct. This morning is a split board. Nikkei minus 0.77. Hang Seng minus half a pct. But Taiwan pl…
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