Season 2, Episode 24 | 2026-04-22
EP24 | The Tanmay Edge
GIFT 24454 (-121). Brent 98.18 above 96, USD INR 93.49 above 93.40 | both wrong sides fired. FII still net short 173948 futures, DII +2221 Cr cash. Buy dip with hedge at 24400-24500. 1DTE Sensex + Infosys Q4 Thu.
Cold Open | 24500 Broke. The Wall Flipped.
GIFT Nifty 24454 (-121). Brent 98.18, still above 96. USD INR 93.49, still above 93.40. Both wrong side tells from EP23 fired. The call wall from yesterday just became today's floor. Tuesday's expiry pin failed. 24500 broke clean. Call writers stuck at the wall did not run. The busted ceiling is today's floor.
What The Tape Is Saying
Two hours ago GIFT was 24432. Now at 8:07 AM IST, GIFT is 24454. Gap down narrowed 22 points overnight. Somebody was buying the dip in the singapore session. Asia | KOSPI was +2.65% at 6 AM, now flat at -0.17. Hang Seng was +0.5, now -1.21. Asian leadership cooled into open. Not a risk on tape | a risk off tape with one buyer left standing in India. But | US futures flipped green overnight. Dow +253 | a 318 pt swing from cash close. S&P and Nasdaq still soft. Rotation is Dow over tech. Old economy over new. Brent 98.18, WTI 89.23. Crude is the story. Not the panic move of 24 hours ago, but has…
The FII DII Truth
Tuesday close. FII Cash -1918 Cr. DII Cash +2221 Cr. April MTD | FII dumped 42203 Cr, DII absorbed 34884 Cr. There is one buyer in this market. It is not foreign money. FII Index Futures | net short 173948 contracts. Covered 15813 on Tuesday's breakout day. That is not capitulation. That is a hedge trim. They are still short. FII Index Options | sold 131k calls, bought 300k puts. On a breakout day. A hedged bearish book. The breakout did not change foreign positioning. That tells you everything. Pro is on the other side | long 124k calls, long 23k puts. Long volatility, long direction. Client …
Today's Call | Buy On Dips With Hedge
Yesterday 24500 broke clean. Expiry pin failed. Call writers at 24500 did not run. They now sit on a busted wall. That wall flips | today 24400 to 24500 becomes the floor zone, not the ceiling. Trade | buy dip into 24400. Stop below 24350. Target 24500 first, 24600 second. 24600 is the next gamma flip on the way up. Why this works today and didn't yesterday | IV got crushed at expiry. Yesterday IV 21.64, today's open print on protection is much cheaper. Buy the dip and pay almost nothing for a put hedge underneath. Hedged longs at cheap vol is the cleanest structure of the week. If 24400 break…
1DTE Sensex Tomorrow | Infosys Q4 Wild Card
Tomorrow is 1 day to Sensex weekly expiry + Infosys Q4 post close. Two events stacked. Peak theta. Peak earnings vol. Sensex spot 79273. Magnet 79000 below. Pin 79500 above. Gamma flip 79300. Sensex sits one step below the flip. Same setup as Nifty | hold the flip, drift to the pin. Lose the flip, magnet to 79000. 3-step ladder | 79000 is your buy on dip first, 79300 gets activated and the flip occurs, that is where 79500 can be seen. Tomorrow's strategy | if today Nifty holds 24400 and Sensex holds 79300, sell the 79500 straddle into Thursday. Theta plus pin. Sellers win. If we lose the flip …
The Wrap | Narratives Lie, Data Doesn't
Buy on dips with hedge. 24400 to 24500 floor. 24600 next flip. Wrong sides fired but tape not extending the panic. Tomorrow stack | Sensex weekly expiry + Infosys Q4. Live data card + prediction trail 8:30 AM tomorrow at rupeecase.com/podcast. The data doesn't lie. Narratives do.
Highlights
- GIFT Nifty 24454 (-121) | wrong side tells armed but tape not extending
- Brent 98.18 still above 96 | USD INR 93.49 still above 93.40
- FII Cash -1918 Cr vs DII Cash +2221 Cr | April MTD DII +34884 absorbing FII -42203
- FII still net short 173948 futures | covered only 15813 on breakout day = hedge trim, not capitulation
- FII sold 131k calls, bought 300k puts on a green day | hedged bearish book
- Pro long 124k calls + long 23k puts | long vol, long direction
- Client sold 380k puts at the wall | most exposed book
- 24400-24500 call wall flipped to floor | stop below 24350, target 24500/24600
- Hedged longs at cheap vol = cleanest structure post expiry
- 1DTE Sensex Thu stacked with Infosys Q4 | flip 79300, pin 79500, magnet 79000
Transcript Excerpt
Gift Nifty is trading at 24,454, down 121 points. Brent is trading at 98.18, still above that $96 mark. USDINR is trading at 93.49, still above that 93. Both wrong sides fired and the call wall from yesterday just became today's floor. This is the Tanmay Edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Episode 24. Let's go. So 2 hours ago, Gift Nifty was trading at 24,450. Right now, Gift Nifty is trading over there itself. The gap down narrowed by 22 points overnight. Somebody was buying the dip in the gift session. Look at Asia. Kospi was up by 2.65% at 6am. Now flat at minus 0.17. Hang Seng was up by half a percent, now down 1.21%. Asia leadership cooled into open. That's not a risk on the tape. That's a risk off tape with one buyer left standing in India. But here's the twist. US futures flipped green while we were sleeping. That's a 318 point swing from the cash close. S&P is still soft. Nasdaq is still soft. So the rotation in the Dow over tech, old economy over new, which lines up with what crude is doing. So let's look at that as well. So Brent is trading at 98.20. WTI is trading around 89.20. Crude is the story. It's not the panic move. It was 24 hours ago, but it has not given back the breakout. And as long as Brent sits above $96 and USDINR sits above that $93, the wrong side tell from episode 23 stays armed. So gold is at $4754 back, whereas silver minus 3%. Risk is being reshuffled, not being bought in, that's clear. So Tuesday close, we saw FIIs selling again 1918 crores, so that is 1900 crore of equity. The DII cash bought 2200 crore of equity. April month to date FIIs have dumped around 42,000 crores where DIIs have absorbed around 35,000 crores. There is one buyer in the market. It is not the foreign money. Now the part nobody talks about. FII index futures. So net short are standing around 1,73,000 contracts. They covered around 15,000 yesterday as well on the breakout day. That is not capitulation. That is a hedge trim. They are still short. FII index options, they so…
Continue Beyond This Episode
Concepts you heard above are covered in detail in the RupeeCase Learn library, and the live strategies on the marketplace put the same systematic approach to work. Free, no sign-up.
- Learn library | 11 paths, 70+ free modules covering momentum, multi-asset, risk metrics, factor investing, behavioural finance and execution.
- Why rules beat gut feeling | the systematic case the show is built on.
- Momentum factor deep dive | the engine behind every RupeeCase equity strategy.
- RBI monetary policy | how the macro signals discussed every morning shape the next session.
- RupeeCase Strategy Marketplace | 16 systematic portfolios from RupeeCase Nifty 10 (entry-level) to AllCap Multi Asset (best Sharpe).
- Take the 2-min risk profile | get matched to a strategy that fits your tier and capital band.
- All episodes | every prior session of The Tanmay Edge.