Season 2, Episode 27 | 2026-04-27

EP27 | The Tanmay Edge

Friday the index broke 24,000. Closed at 23,897. Down 275 points. Brent went 106. Rupee touched 94.25. Every WhatsApp group is asking the same question | is this the start of something bigger, or did we see a dead cat bounce?Tomorrow is mon

Cold Open | Friday Broke 24000

Friday the index broke 24000. Closed 23897, down 275 points. Brent went to 106. Rupee touched 94.25. Every WhatsApp group is asking the same question. Is this the start of something bigger? Did we see a dead cat bounce? I will tell you exactly what I am seeing in the data. And exactly what I am doing with my own book today. Because tomorrow is monthly Nifty expiry. The next 48 hours decide a lot more than just one settlement.

Global + Commodities | India Is The Laggard

GIFT Nifty 24136 pre-open, plus 182 from Friday. Half-percent gap up. India is opening green. Hold that thought. US at fresh records. S&P 500 at 7165 (+0.80%). Nasdaq at 24836 (+1.63%). Both new ATHs. Dow futures slightly red. Asia wide green | Nikkei +1.45, KOSPI +2.10, Taiwan +2.28. Hang Seng small green. Only Jakarta red on a local issue. The part that matters. Brent crude 106.94, +1.53% overnight. Friday closed 105. Strait of Hormuz situation has not eased over the weekend. WTI 95.74. USD INR 94.25 | Friday it broke 94 with conviction and has not come back below. World is risk on. Crude is…

Pro vs FII vs Client | The Signature Read

Pay attention. Friday's positioning data tells a story most people will get wrong. Pro net index futures +13277, added small longs. Pro net long puts now 2,99,054 contracts | added 65518 long puts in a single session. They DOUBLED the put hedge on a -1.14% day. FII net index futures -2,04,079, added 13165 fresh shorts on Friday. Did not cover. Pressed deeper. Their put book +3,83,812 long, added 8000 more long puts on top. Client net short puts -7,34,111, added 72163 MORE short puts on Friday. Sold puts INTO the crash. Third week running where Client is doing the exact wrong thing at the exact…

Options Map | 23800 Floor, 24000 Magnet, 24200 Ceiling

Tomorrow is monthly Nifty expiry. Biggest single-gamma day of the cycle. Monthly plus weekly settling together. ATM straddle at 23900 is 348 rupees (Put 165, Call 183). India VIX 19.72 (+6% Friday). 28 Apr IV 16.98% | CHEAP, off Thursday peak of 17.6. 1SD at 1.25x is 435 points. Range 23463 to 24333. 24000 is the magnet. Call OI 8,56,000 (Friday +5,13,000 fresh). Put OI 6,23,000. Both writers stacked at the same strike. Textbook max-pain configuration. Gravity kicks in. 24200 is the fortress. Call OI 8,88,000 (Friday +2,88,000 fresh). Biggest call wall of the cycle. Every put strike from 24100…

Sector Rotation | Energy Strong Buy, IT & Reliance Strong Sell

India VIX is Strong Buy. Algo score 9808. Rank one across the entire screener. Vol regime fully bid. That alone tells you to expect movement. Energy Strong Buy (354). Crude beneficiaries | ONGC, oil PSUs, gas names. The rotation is working. Metal flipped to Buy. Commodity tape getting bid as crude stays elevated. CNXIT Strong Sell (-66). The IT meltdown after HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infy guidance cuts is not done. Reliance Strong Sell (-48) into Q4 reaction. Auto Strong Sell (-26). Three sectors leading the tape down. Nifty itself Strong Sell (-18). That is the headline tape weakness. Globall…

Education | The FII Paradox

Most people read FII pressing shorts on a sell day as bearish. You have to look at the ENTIRE book. FII short index -2,04,000 contracts. Same FII long stock futures +8,68,000 contracts. That is FOUR times the index short on the long stock side. The index short is HEDGING the stock long. It is not a directional bet on the index falling. When you see headlines that say "FII shorts deepen," ask the second question. What is the stock book doing? If both are short, directional bear. If index is short and stocks are long, smart hedge. Friday was the second one.

Today's Plan | Buy The Dip, Hedge Cheap, Let The Chain Pin

I am a buyer on dips. With hedges underneath. Volatility is expected. Cheap volatility on the front month is a gift. I am NOT chasing the gap up open. I am waiting for the dip. Buy zone 23850 to 23900. Right at the gamma flip. Right at the put floor cluster. First hour after gap up filling = my entry. Hedge | 23900 put for 165 rupees. IV 17 makes that PE one of the cheapest insurance buys in 3 weeks. Same put at VIX 25 would cost 250. I am paying 165 for the same protection. Pin target Tuesday | 24000. Both writers stacked. Max pain math wants it there. Upside cap | 24200. Iron call wall. NOT …

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

Friday, the index broke 24000. Closed 23897. Down 275 points. Brent went to 106. Rupee touched 94 and 25 paise. And every WhatsApp group I am on has the same question. Is this the start of something bigger. I will tell you exactly what I am seeing in the data. And exactly what I am doing with my own book today. Because tomorrow is monthly Nifty expiry. And the next 48 hours are going to decide a lot more than just one settlement. This is The Tanmay Edge. India's pre-market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 27. Let's go. Quick global setup before we get into the real story. GIFT Nifty as I am recording is at 24136. That is up 182 points from Friday's reference. So roughly a half-percent gap up open. India is opening green. That is the headline. But hold that thought. US closed Friday at fresh records. S&P 500 at 7165, up 0.80 percent. Nasdaq at 24836, up 1.63 percent. Both new all-time highs. Dow futures right now slightly red, down 43 points. So the US is fine. Asia this morning is wide green. Nikkei plus 1.45. KOSPI plus 2.10. Taiwan plus 2.28. Hang Seng small green. Only Jakarta is red, down 3.49 percent on a local issue. Not a regional signal. Now the part that matters. Brent crude is 106.94. Up 1.53 percent overnight. Friday closed at 105. So Brent is still climbing. Strait of Hormuz situation has not eased over the weekend. WTI at 95.74. Both still elevated. Gold pulled back small to 4699. Dollar Index 98.49 essentially flat. And here is the one most people miss. USD INR sitting at 94.25. Friday it broke 94 with conviction. It has not come back below. So the picture is. World is risk on. Crude is bid. Rupee is weak. India was the laggard on Friday. And we are gapping up to catch up. But that gap up is the question. This is the segment that decides everything. So pay attention. Friday's positioning data tells a story most people will get wrong. Start with Pro. The proprietary book. The smart money. Pro net index futures on Friday is plus 13277. They …

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