Season 2, Episode 36 | 2026-05-11
Brent Cracked 104. GIFT Gap Down. Buy The Floor With A Hedge
The Iran tail came back. Brent jumped 3.31 percent over the weekend from 101.29 Friday settle to 104.65 Monday open. GIFT Nifty 24,060.50 down 179 puts spot near the 24,000 floor on the first tick.
Cold Open | The Wing Is About To Pay
I called the range Friday. Two for five. The wide wing held by 252 points. The tight pin breached by 24. Banks broke the long carry first. I should have been celebrating the wing. I was not. Because the Iran tail came back at noon Friday. By Sunday night Brent had cracked 104. By Monday open GIFT is down 179. The wing the chain priced Friday is about to pay this morning. This is The Tanmay Edge. EP36. Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go.
Three Numbers Run This Open
Brent 104.65 on the 07:38 IST international print. Up 3.31 percent over the weekend from 101.29 Friday settle. WTI 99.07 up 3.82. The Strait of Hormuz priced a fresh weekend escalation. The fragile ceasefire that held Saturday cracked overnight in the tape if not on the wires. GIFT Nifty 24,060.50. Down 179. Gap-down 0.74 against Friday cash close 24,176.15. We open near the 24,000 floor on the first tick. US closed records Friday. S&P 7398.93 ATH. Nasdaq 26,247.08 ATH. Monday morning Dow futures print 49,456 down 152. The US already started giving back.
Asia Split + Yields + The Only Good News
Asia split. KOSPI up 4.55 catching up. Nikkei down 0.29. Hang Seng down 0.47. Taiwan up 0.50. Jakarta down 2.94 because oil importers got punished. Shanghai up 0.60. The split tells you the world is not all bearish. The oil importers are. India is the oil importer. Yields up. India 10Y 6.96. US 10Y 4.39. Both bid this morning. Dollar Index 98.05. USD/INR 94.47 Friday close. The rupee held below 95 even with Brent at 104. That is the only good news on the macro card.
Chain Read | Two Walls, Three Floors, One Magnet
24,200 was the magnet Friday. 61,11,545 contracts in one session at one strike. Largest single-strike write of season two. Writers picked a magnet not a direction. They also said this is where the fight is. 24500 wall. 98,81,690 contracts. 25,500 ceiling. 1,16,23,430 with 43,03,000 added in one session. Two walls. One thousand points apart. Monday trades the lane between. 24000 floor. 72,44,250 puts. 23,500 deep floor. 81,92,600. 23,000 ultra-deep floor. 73,20,950 with 6,86,335 added Friday. The chain built three floors. Then it built the deepest one biggest. Writers priced 23,000 harder than …
Wing Math | The Range The Chain Priced
ATM 24,200 straddle Friday close 291.30. Times 1.25. 364 each side. The four-day Mon-Tue range the chain priced. 23,812 to 24,540. GIFT 24,060 opens 248 above the wing floor. 480 below the wing ceiling. The wing started to pay before cash opened.
POV | Buy The Floor, Hedge On Top, Long Gamma
Buy on dips. With a hedge. The hedge costs more today. Pay it anyway. The buy zone is the floor. 23,950 to 24,050. We are there at the first tick if GIFT holds. The 12-May 23,800 PE was sold Friday at 25.20. By the time you read this it is twice that. Buy it anyway. The wing is the floor today. The floor is the hedge today. IV opens up. India VIX 16.84 close Friday. Intraday high tagged 17.43. Monday the print goes higher first. Long gamma day rule. When vol is going up and spot is moving fast, you buy options. You do not sell them. Stand down on premium selling until VIX cracks back below 17.…
Three Branches + Triggers First Hour
Base case 50 percent. Spot opens 24,050 to 24,100. Tests 23,950. Bounces. Fades to 24,200 broken pin floor as resistance. Wing rents the morning. Premium selling later only if VIX cracks back below 17. Escalation 35 percent. Spot prints 23,812. The 23,000 ultra-deep floor that the chain built bigger than 23,500 in one session becomes the live test. EP30 playbook back in. Wing-rent week. Hedge first cash second. De-escalation 15 percent. Brent retraces to 100 zone by noon. US 10Y falls below 4.30. Spot retakes 24,200. Range frame revives. Buy dips at 24,050 holds. Banks re-bid resumes. Branch t…
Education + Calibration | Same Put, Two Jobs
Bands always hold. Points never do. Three sessions in a row direction was right and levels were tight under one ATR. EP33 wall flexed by 30. EP34 magnet held by 44. EP35 floor breached by 24. Three sessions of the chain talking in bands and me predicting points. This week I trade the band. The chain calls the lean. The hedge does the work. When the wing pays, the hedge graduates to the buy. The 23,800 PE I called as wing protection Friday is the same option that opens as the buy this morning. The chain does not re-price it as a different contract. The trader has to re-read it as a different ro…
Highlights
- EP35 graded 2 of 5 Friday | wing held by 252 | pin breached by 24 | banks broke long carry
- Iran tail returned noon Friday | Brent cracked 104 Sunday night | GIFT down 179 Monday open
- Brent 104.65 plus 3.31 percent over the weekend from 101.29 Friday settle
- WTI 99.07 plus 3.82 percent | Strait of Hormuz priced fresh weekend escalation
- GIFT Nifty 24,060.50 minus 179 | gap-down 0.74 vs Friday cash close 24,176.15
- S&P 7398.93 ATH | Nasdaq 26,247.08 ATH | Dow Futures Mon AM 49,456 minus 152
- Asia split | KOSPI plus 4.55 | Nikkei minus 0.29 | Jakarta minus 2.94 oil importer pain
- India 10Y 6.96 | US 10Y 4.39 | Dollar Index 98.05 | USD/INR 94.47 held below 95
- 24,200 magnet | 61,11,545 contracts in one session | largest single-strike write of S2
- 24,500 wall 98,81,690 OI | 25,500 ceiling 1,16,23,430 added 43,03,000 in one session
- 24,000 floor 72,44,250 puts | 23,500 deep 81,92,600 | 23,000 ultra-deep 73,20,950 added 6,86,335
- ATM 24,200 straddle 291.30 | times 1.25 wing factor | 364 points each side
- Mon-Tue 4-day range chain priced 23,812 to 24,540 | GIFT 24,060 opens 248 above floor
- Buy zone 23,950 to 24,050 | hedge 12-May 23,800 PE | wing is floor floor is hedge
- India VIX 16.84 close | intraday high 17.43 | Monday prints higher first | long gamma rule
- Stand down on premium selling until VIX cracks back below 17 | not before
- Three branches first hour | Base 50 magnet test | Escalation 35 floor break | De-esc 15 Brent below 100
- Triggers active | Brent above 105 escalation | below 100 de-esc | BN basis positive FII unwound
- Calibration | 3 sessions levels-tight under 1 ATR | EP33 30 | EP34 44 | EP35 24 | trade the band
- Education | same put two jobs | 23,800 PE Friday insurance becomes Monday hedge under longs
Transcript Excerpt
a very good morning guys i called a range on friday the wide wing held by 250 points the tight pin breached by 24 points and banks broke the long carry first i should have been celebrating the wing i was not because the iran tail came back at noon on friday by sunday night Brent cracked at $104 by Monday open. Gift is down by 179 points. The wing, the chain priced Friday, is about to pay this morning. This is the Tanmay Edge, India's pre -market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtaguti. Season 2, episode 36. Let's go. Three numbers run this morning. Brent at 104 .65 on international print up. 3 .31 % over the weekend from 101 that settled on Friday. WTI is trading around 99 .07. The state of Hormuz priced a fresh weekend escalation. The fragile ceasefire that held Saturday cracked overnight in the tape, if not on the wires. Gift Nifty is trading around 24 ,060, down 179 points. Gap down of 0 .74 % against Friday's cash close of 24 ,176. We opened near the 24 ,000 floor on the first tick. US closed records on Friday high. So S &P closed at an all -time high of 7398. NASDAQ was trading at 26247 at an all -time high on Friday. Both built on April jobs. By Monday morning, Dow futures is down by 150 points. The US has already started giving back the gains. Two desks read the same Iran tale differently. Friday, the gap was 175 basis points in one session. The morning, the gap is closing. Asia is also split now. Kospi is up 4 .55, catching up. Nikkei is down 0 .29%. Hang Seng down... 0 .47%. Taiwan up 0 .5%. Jakarta down 2 .94 % because oil importers got punished. Shanghai is up by 0 .6%. The split tells you the world is not at all bearish. The oil importers are 100 % are and India is the oil importer. Yields are up in India and India's 10 -year bond yield is trading at 6 .96. US 10 -year is trading at 4 .39. bid this morning dollar index is above that 98 dollar mark and usd inr just trading below that 94 .50 at 94 .47. The rupee held below 95 even when the Brent was at 104. That is th…
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