Season 2, Episode 109 | 2026-08-24
Two Points Off The Magnet | Nifty Closes 24,252 vs Max Pain 24,250, Expiry Tomorrow | The Wall Rebuilt At 24,300 (135 Lakh Calls) vs 150 Lakh Puts At 24,200 | Oil Breaks To 92, Gold Record 4646, Korea -2.8% | +100 Gap Above The Wall: Buy On Dip
Friday's close: 24,252. Friday's max pain: 24,250. Two points. Episode 109 opens on a market parked exactly on its magnet with expiry tomorrow, and walks the collision course set for Monday: a hundred point gap that wants to open above the
Verdict: 4/5 | 4 HIT, 1 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | Two Points Off The Magnet
Friday the market closed at 24,252, exactly two points off the predicted magnet, with max pain still standing between 24,250 and 24,300. The whole day was a 77 point coil that opened at the resistance and dipped into the buy zone we called, then closed exactly at 24,250. Thursday the call carpet got ripped up. Friday the writers rebuilt it one strike higher, with 37 lakh calls returning at 24,300. Puts thickened underneath, so the support has increased. Overnight oil broke to 92.7, Korea is down 2.8 percent, gold made another record at 4,646, and GIFT Nifty is showing a 100 point gap up above …
Friday's Tape | A 77 Point Coil
The Nifty closed at 24,252, the second higher close in the range. The range was 77 points, the open was 24,284 and that was the high, the low was 24,206, the tightest day in weeks. Breadth was dead even at 25 up and 24 down. The Sensex closed at 77,540, almost flat after a 280 point round trip. VIX rose 4.2 percent to 11.2 on a flat day while the options IV fell, so edges were being bought under the calmness. Banks led at 0.46 percent, metals 0.86 percent, PSU green, while FMCG fell 0.7 percent, auto 0.6 percent and IT dragged 0.46 percent lower. Power Grid added 2.66 percent, BEL 1.17 percent…
The Board | The Resistance Rebuilt One Strike Higher
Thursday two crore calls got covered. Friday the writers rebuilt at 24,300, where 37 lakh calls were added to take the total to 1.34 crore sold. That is the first resistance. More fresh calls came at 24,250 with 26 lakh added, 24,550 with 19 lakh, 24,350 with 14 lakh and 24,400 with 11 lakh, so writing happened across the board. Puts advanced too. The 24,200 put added almost 17 lakh to reach 1.5 crore, the 24,000 put added 13 lakh to reach 1.77 crore, and 24,300 holds 95 lakh puts. At the money 24,250 reads 67 lakh calls against 68 lakh puts, almost even. PCR is just above one at 1.07 and max …
The Volatility Map | One SD Sits Above The Resistance
Front IV is just below the 10 mark, with vol moving from 10 down to 8.2 and settling there. The daily one standard deviation is roughly 95 points, giving 24,158 to 24,346. The at the money straddle settled at 163, and the straddle implied move of roughly 204 points gives a range of 24,050 on the lower end to 24,455 on the upper end. The one standard deviation upper edge of 24,346 sits above the 24,300 resistance, so that strike is going to get tested. The actual battlefield is between 24,200 and 24,380 to 24,400. Negative gamma sits below 24,200 and positive gamma above 24,300, which leaves 24…
Who Did What | Pros Long Everything, Crowd Fading Both Ways
The pros added 31,000 more calls to take the book to 1.4 lakh, added 18,000 puts to almost 1.85 lakh, and stayed long 10,000 futures, so the flip is holding. The pros are long calls, long puts and long futures. The FIIs covered around 16,000 more calls, taking the two day cover to roughly a lakh, trimmed 11,000 puts in a real de-risk, kept futures short at 2.1 lakh and added another 15,000 stock futures contracts. So the FIIs are short calls, long puts and short index futures while carrying a large long stock futures book. The clients sold another 46,000 calls, two straight days dumping into s…
The Flows | Foreigners Sell Cash And Buy Derivatives
FII cash sold 542 crore on Friday while DII cash bought 2,124 crore. In derivatives the FIIs bought index options worth 838 crore, stock futures worth 858 crore and index futures worth 364 crore. So the foreigners sold Indian cash and bought Indian derivatives, which reads as re-entry rather than an exit. The buy signal is still live from 24,210, so the current trade is up by 41 points. Rolling three trades is almost 900 points on the Nifty, or three and a half percent, and rolling five trades is more than 1,000 points, or 4.17 percent. The futures ladder carries 37 points of basis and the exp…
The Plan | Do Not Chase The Gap
The bias remains buy on dips. The gap opens above 24,300, so do not chase the open. Let the 24,300 resistance get broken and let 24,300 get held. Base case, the gap up gets sold back into the 24,250 to 24,300 zone, with positive gamma only above 24,300 and 1.35 crore calls sitting there. The first buy zone is dips toward 24,200 to 24,250 with 1.5 crore puts as support, and the next is 24,000 to 24,100. Stop loss below 24,100 on a closing basis and 24,000 intraday. If 24,300 holds into the close that is a third higher close and the magnet shifts to 24,350 to 24,400. Watch Asia and keep oil belo…
Highlights
- Nifty closed 24,252 on Friday, two points off the predicted magnet
- The whole session was a 77 point coil, the tightest range in weeks
- Open 24,284 was the high, low 24,206, breadth dead even at 25 up 24 down
- Sensex closed 77,540, almost flat after a 280 point round trip
- VIX rose 4.2 percent to 11.2 on a flat day while options IV fell
- 37 lakh calls returned at 24,300, taking that resistance to 1.34 crore
- Fresh calls added at 24,250, 24,350, 24,400 and 24,550 across the board
- 24,200 put added 17 lakh to reach 1.5 crore, the first support
- 24,000 put added 13 lakh to reach 1.77 crore
- At the money 24,250 reads 67 lakh calls against 68 lakh puts
- PCR just above one at 1.07, max pain 24,250 to 24,300
- Front IV just below 10, vol settling from 10 down to 8.2
- Daily one SD roughly 95 points, 24,158 to 24,346
- At the money straddle 163, implied move roughly 204 points
- Negative gamma below 24,200, positive above 24,300, dead zone between
- Pros added 31,000 calls to 1.4 lakh and stayed long 10,000 futures
- FIIs covered 16,000 calls, two day cover now roughly a lakh
- FIIs added 15,000 stock futures contracts while holding index futures short 2.1 lakh
- Clients sold 46,000 calls and grew the naked put book to 6.98 lakh
- FII cash sold 542 crore, DII cash bought 2,124 crore
- Buy signal live from 24,210, rolling three trades almost 900 points
- GIFT Nifty 24,355, a 100 point gap up over the 24,300 resistance
- Gold made another record at 4,646 and Korea fell 2.8 percent
- Plan on record: do not chase the gap, buy dips 24,200 to 24,250, spreads only
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Friday the market closed at 24,252, exactly two points off the predicted magnet, and max pain still stands between that 24,250 to 24,300 level. The whole day, a 77 point coil that we saw, opened at the resistance and dipped into the buy zone we called, closed exactly at 24,250. Thursday the call carpet got ripped up. Friday the writers rebuilt it, one floor higher, 37 lakh calls returned at 24,300. Puts thickened underneath, so the support has increased, 24,200 now has 1.5 crore, puts retreated, 24,000 has 1.77 crore. And this morning oil broke to 92.7, the risk is higher, Korea is down 2.8 percent, gold made another record high at 4,646, and GIFT Nifty is showing a 100 point gap up above that 24,300 resistance. Expiry is tomorrow. Something blinks today, the gap or the resistance, and that is what we are going to see. So this is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 109. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So Friday first, guys. Friday the Nifty closed at 24,252, the second higher close in the range. The range was 77 points, the open was 24,284, that was the high, the low was 24,206, the tightest day in weeks we have seen. Breadth dead even, 25 up 24 down. The Sensex closed at 77,540, almost flat after a 280 point round trip, and VIX up 4.2 percent to 11.2 on a flat day. While the options IV fell, edges being bought under the calmness was being seen. Banks led on Friday, 0.46, metals 0.86, PSU green, FMCG was down 0.7 percent, auto was down 0.6 percent, IT was down and dragged it lower, 0.46 percent lower. Power Grid 2.66 percent, BEL 1.17 percent, Kotak Bank 1.08 percent. And some losers, Trent was 1.53 percent lower, Maruti was 1.51 percent lower. So I will take a 4.5 on 5 for Friday's call. Full scorecard is available on rupeecase.com. Called the resistance at 24,300, called the buy on dips at 24,200, called two higher closes in a row, and the pin drifting towards that 24,250 to 300. So let's see how the markets have stacked u…
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