Season 2, Episode 104 | 2026-08-17
The Crowd Rebuilt The Record | 6.08 Lakh Naked Puts At The Cheapest Vol Of The Month, Max Pain Holds 24,400 A Fourth Day, The Machine Rotates Fresh
Five days ago the crowd's record short put book burned in a two hundred point flush at 24,266. On Friday they rebuilt it, bigger: retail is now short 6.
Verdict: 2/5 | 1 HIT, 1 PARTIAL, 3 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | The Crowd Rebuilt The Record
Today is Monday, GIFT Nifty is showing a flat to positive opening, and the crowd, the retail put book, is at a five day high and a record 6.08 lakh naked puts sold. A new record. And they added almost 1.22 lakh on Friday at the cheapest premium available all month, when volatility is below that 10 mark. Everyone else is buying, and they are selling puts. That is what today's episode is all about.
The Tape | The Magnet Did Its Work
Nifty closed Friday at 24,366, just 0.12 percent negative. The high and low was 24,326 to 24,431, exactly between that 24,400 magnet and the 24,300 low. So the grading for Friday's episode is 4 on 5. Both indices got a late cash hop as expected on a non expiry day, where every cash session is showing some long positive bounce happening on the close.
The Pros | The Third Loop
The pros flipped up. They have now added around 1.37 lakh calls and are holding around 0.6 lakh puts, so they are holding both calls and puts when volatility is low. This is the third loop they are running, buy the cheap volatility, sell it once the spike happens, and buy it back again when it is cheap. Now you understand why they have gone long volatility today, because the volatility arc has been falling, from 10 to 12.2 to 9.9 to 9.4 to almost 8. That is the lowest we have seen. The Tuesday straddle is trading at 168, last close was around 140, so another 20 to 30 points of decay is left. E…
The Institutions | Both Sides Bought
The FIIs have hit the max puts they have bought in, holding 4.97 lakh puts. Along with that they are 1.77 lakh futures short, and short 2.77 lakh calls. In the cash market they bought 508 crore, two of the three days they bought, and 5,589 crore into index options. The DIIs also bought 356 crore, so both bought in. The FIIs are maintaining their hedge, long the stocks, short the index futures at a record high of 1.77 lakh, short calls and long puts. Keep an eye on that, because that is where the selling is coming from. And the retail crowd is trapped again with a record 6.08 lakh naked puts sh…
The Chain | Everything Converging On 24,400
The option chain is stable. 24,400 is still the magnet, so it should be at the centre of any trade. 24,300 has 1.02 crore, almost 24 lakh puts got added on Friday. 24,000 is the base with the maximum support, 1.14 crore puts written, though I do not see the market going below 24,200. The 24,400 calls are the first resistance, just below the one crore mark at 81 lakh. 25,000 calls saw some covering but still hold around 1.13 crore. So resistance 24,400, support 24,300, PCR at 0.884, and the basis is around 80 points from weekly to monthly futures. Support is stacking up, resistance is just at t…
The Plan | Buy Dips, Watch The Straddle Spike
Buy on dips continues, unchanged for the whole month. FII cash buying has intensified, two of three days, along with the insurance they are buying, and the DIIs are absorbing. 24,300 is the support, 24,000 the base case with 1.14 crore puts. So buy dips toward the 24,300 zone, stop below 24,250. If 24,250 breaks then 24,100 and 24,000 can also get hit. Upside, reclaim 24,400 on a closing basis and the magnet can shift to 24,500 first. Rule number one today, volatility is extremely cheap, so if you are selling an intraday straddle keep a watch on any straddle spike. If the spike starts, get out…
Highlights
- Crowd naked put book at a record 6.08 lakh with 1.22 lakh added Friday
- They sold it at the cheapest premium available all month vol below 10
- Nifty closed 24,366 down 0.12 percent inside the 24,326 to 24,431 range
- The 24,400 magnet and 24,300 low framed the whole session
- Pros added about 1.37 lakh calls holding 0.6 lakh puts long vol both legs
- Third loop buy cheap vol sell the spike buy it back cheap again
- Vol arc falling 10 to 12.2 to 9.9 to 9.4 to almost 8 the lowest of the cycle
- Tuesday straddle 168 with another 20 to 30 points of decay left
- FII holding 4.97 lakh puts the max of the month
- FII short 1.77 lakh index futures a record high plus 2.77 lakh short calls
- FII bought 508 crore cash and 5,589 crore into index options DII added 356 crore
- 24,400 magnet 24,300 support with 1.02 crore and 24 lakh added Friday
- 24,000 base holds 1.14 crore puts the maximum support on the board
- 24,400 calls first resistance at 81 lakh 25,000 calls still 1.13 crore
- PCR 0.884 basis about 80 points weekly to monthly futures
- Rebalance day on the All Cap 50 stocks 2 percent each CAGR roughly 47 percent
- Plan buy dips to 24,300 stop below 24,250 then 24,100 and 24,000 open up
- Reclaim 24,400 on a close and the magnet can shift to 24,500
- Nikkei record 68,739 gold record 4,400 Brent 88.84 rupee 95.43
- Sleeper to watch Japanese 10 year yields rising to 2.93
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Today is Monday. GIFT Nifty is showing a flat to positive opening, and the crowd, or the retail put book, is at a five day high, and it is at a record high of 6.08 lakh naked puts they have sold. So, a new record. And they added almost 1.22 lakh on Friday at the cheapest premium available all this month, when volatility is below that 10 mark. Everyone else is buying, and they are selling puts. And that is what today's episode is all about. So this is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 104. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. So let's go. So let's look at what happened on Friday. Nifty closed at 24,366, just 0.12 percent negative. The high and low for Nifty was 24,326 to 24,431, exactly between that magnet of 24,400 and the low of 24,300. So the grading for Friday's episode is 4 on 5, you can visit rupeecase.com and check it out. Both indices got a late cash hop on, as expected on a non expiry day, wherein every cash session is showing us some long positive bounce happening on every closing. Now let's look at the pros, the loop that happened. On the pros, they flipped up. So what does that mean? They have now added around 1.37 lakh calls, and they are holding around 0.6 lakh puts. So it means they are holding both calls and puts when the volatility is low. So this is the third loop they are doing, where they buy the cheap volatility, sell it once the spike happens, and again buy it back when the volatility is cheap. So now you understand why they have gone long volatility today, because the volatility arc, if you see, has been falling, from 10 to 12.2 to 9.9 to 9.4 to almost 8. So that is the lowest that we have seen. The Tuesday straddle is trading at 168. Last time we saw the closing happening around 140, so another 20 to 30 points of decay is left for today. Expiry movement has never been cheaper this cycle, one day before expiry. You can see it. And what are the FIIs doing? So the FIIs have hit the max puts they have bought in, 4.97 lakh p…
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