Season 2, Episode 105 | 2026-08-18
The Oil Trigger Fired At 91 | A Third Record Naked Put Book Walks Into Expiry, 135 Lakh Puts Defend 24,300, And Vol Wakes 25 Percent At The Floor
Eight episodes ago this podcast put one sentence on record: if oil crosses 90 dollars, the support under this market starts breaking. Overnight, Brent crossed it, 91.16 at recording time, and it picked expiry morning to do it.
Verdict: 2.5/5 | 1 HIT, 1 PARTIAL, 3 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | The Oil Trigger Fired On Expiry Day
Today is the expiry day, and Brent has crossed 90 dollars overnight, making a high of 91.35. The trigger we called 8 episodes ago fired this morning, and today is the expiry. 6,61,000 puts have been sold by the clients, a third consecutive record naked put book. IV jumped almost 25 percent yesterday, and the expiry IV woke up today at the support. So today is the expiry day, somebody wins at 3:30.
The Staircase | Fifth Straight Lower Close
The Nifty closed 78 points lower, 0.32 percent, at 24,287, with a high of 24,360 and a low of 24,226. A fifth straight lower close. And look at the flow, 24,472 five days ago, then 24,436, then 24,396, then 24,366, then 24,288 yesterday. A staircase down, almost 45 to 50 points every day. The Sensex closed 281 points lower at 77,728 with a low of 77,454. VIX was up almost a percent to 11.4. Breadth was 18 up and 31 down, almost 2 to 3. IT was down 1.75 percent with Infosys down 2.66 and HCL down 2.53, FMCG down 1 percent, while Realty was up 1.46 and Metal up 1.26. Small caps were green, so th…
Yesterday's Grade | Direction Wrong, Vol Right
Buy on dips went wrong. The dip sliced towards 24,227, so the 24,300 stop worked and the exit rule worked. And one thing that worked was IV, which got a jump of almost 25 percent. So direction was wrong, vol was right. I will take a 2 on 5 on that.
The Flows | The Second 5,000 Crore Cheque In Three Sessions
FII cash saw 2,535 crore of selling yesterday, whereas the DIIs bought 5,101 crore, the second 5,000 crore cheque in three sessions. That is a big one. FII index options bought 8,423 crore in one day, so they are buying the protection at full throttle. And FII index futures shorts grew to 1.82 lakh, a new cycle high for August. And the crowd, you can see the numbers yourself. 5.74 lakh puts short, then 6.08 lakh, and yesterday 6.61 lakh. Three consecutive records in the naked short put book. 53,000 puts added on Monday into a falling knife, one night before oil crossed 90. The first record bur…
Positioning | Long Vol Both Legs Into The Expiry
The pros are long 1.26 lakh calls and long 1.12 lakh puts, which means they are long vol on both legs into the expiry. The IV spike overnight has already paid that book, but the loop keeps working and they are carrying it. The FIIs are long 5.02 lakh puts, crossing 5 lakh for the first time this month, and they covered around 50,000 call shorts, so even the hedges respect the upside tail.
The Board | Max Pain Above Spot For Once
Max pain sits around 24,350, so 24,350 to 400 is the zone, and the market is 62 points below the magnet. Support is 24,300 with 1.35 crore puts, 33 lakh added yesterday, the single biggest strike of the defensive bulls. Support two is 24,250 with 83 lakh puts, and almost half of that, 43.5 lakh, was added yesterday, the biggest add we saw. Then 24,200 at 1.04 crore, and the base at 24,000 with 1.14 crore. Resistance starts at 24,350 with 71 lakh calls after a 31 lakh add, then 24,400 with 1.05 crore, and 24,500 is the biggest at 1.25 crore calls written. Put writers added one crore contracts b…
The Plan | The Long Put Spread
The battlefield is roughly 24,200 to 400, so we have 200 points to play for. Max pain above spot for once. Reclaim 24,350 and the pin can settle, below 24,350 we see a trending move, and lose 24,250 and the crowd's 6.6 lakh naked puts are the fuel, with 24,000 possible. Do not rule out a trending move today. Oil above 91 gives the downside the benefit of the doubt, the standing rule. The vol model says buy the IV, do not sell it, own it in small risk. So we play the same direction, buy on dips remains, through a long spread. Buy the 24,300 put and sell the 24,500 in the money put. The spread t…
Highlights
- Brent crossed 90 overnight with a high of 91.35 the trigger called 8 episodes ago fired
- Clients short 6.61 lakh naked puts a third consecutive record
- IV jumped almost 25 percent yesterday and woke up at the support
- Nifty closed 24,287 down 78 points the fifth straight lower close
- Staircase 24,472 to 24,436 to 24,396 to 24,366 to 24,288 about 45 to 50 points a day
- Sensex closed 77,728 down 281 with a low of 77,454 VIX 11.4
- Breadth 18 up 31 down IT down 1.75 Infosys 2.66 HCL 2.53 smallcaps green
- Previous call graded 2 on 5 the dip sliced to 24,227 but the stop and vol call worked
- FII sold 2,535 crore cash DII bought 5,101 crore the second 5,000 crore cheque in 3 sessions
- FII bought 8,423 crore of index options in one day buying protection at full throttle
- FII index futures shorts grew to 1.82 lakh a new cycle high for August
- Crowd added 53,000 puts on Monday into a falling knife one night before oil crossed 90
- The first record burned at 24,266 on the 12th and was rebuilt twice bigger
- Pros long 1.26 lakh calls and 1.12 lakh puts long vol both legs into expiry
- FII long 5.02 lakh puts crossing 5 lakh for the first time this month
- Max pain 24,350 with the market 62 points below the magnet
- Support 24,300 holds 1.35 crore puts with 33 lakh added yesterday
- Support 24,250 holds 83 lakh puts with 43.5 lakh added the biggest single add
- Resistance 24,350 at 71 lakh calls 24,400 at 1.05 crore 24,500 biggest at 1.25 crore
- Put writers added one crore contracts between 24,200 and 24,300 in a single day
- PCR 0.92 straddle about 125 box roughly 24,150 to 24,400 negative gamma below 24,350
- Trade a long put spread buy 24,300 sell 24,500 credit 127 stop 160 target 60 points
- Crude 91.16 rupee below 95.50 gold 4,400 US 10 year 4.73 Asia melting Nikkei down 1 percent
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Today is the expiry day, and Brent has crossed 90 dollars overnight. It made a high of 91.35. The trigger that we called 8 episodes ago fired this morning, and today is the expiry. 6,61,000 puts have been sold by the clients, into a third consecutive record naked put book. IV has crossed, almost a 25 percent jump yesterday, and the expiry IV woke up today at the support. So today is the expiry day, somebody wins at 3:30. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 105. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So first, yesterday. Yesterday we saw the Nifty close around 78 points lower, 0.32 percent lower, at 24,287. The high was 24,360 and the low was 24,226. A fifth straight lower close we have seen. And the flow is, 24,472 five days ago, then 24,436, a lower one, then 24,396, another lower one, then 24,366, another lower one, and 24,288 yesterday. A staircase down, almost 45 to 50 points every day we are seeing. We will come back to it later. The Sensex closed 281 points lower at 77,728, and it made a low of 77,454. VIX was up almost a percent and closed at 11.4. The breadth for yesterday was 18 stocks up on the Nifty and 31 down, so almost a 2 is to 3 breadth that we saw. Sectors, IT was down 1.75 percent, in which Infosys was down 2.66 percent, HCL was down 2.53 percent. FMCG as a sector was down 1 percent. Realty was positive 1.46 percent, Metal was positive 1.26 percent. Small caps were green, so the broader market is still showing strength, and we will come back to it as well in this episode. So about yesterday, buy on dips went wrong. The dip sliced towards 24,227, so the 24,300 stop worked, the exit rule worked. And one thing that worked was, IV got a jump of almost 25 percent yesterday. So direction was wrong, vol was right. So I will take a 2 on 5 on that. Full scorecard is available on rupeecase.com. Now the flows for yesterday. FII cash saw 2,535 crore of selling yesterday, whereas the DIIs bought 5,101 crore, the second 5,00…
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